Snow Levels Could Drop to 700 Feet on Sunday in Douglas County

At this point, it's looking more and more likely that snow could fall close to the valley floor across Douglas County on Sunday. NWS in Medford is now calling for snow as low as 700 feet. Higher elevations are expected to get several inches of snow between now and early next week. Friday-Saturday Weather Snow levels tonight through Friday are expected to be generally in the 2500 to 3500 foot range, though breaks in the cloud cover tonight into Friday mean isolated areas could possibly see flakes fly down about 1kft lower than the above mentioned snow levels. Snow amounts in the mountains are likely to be 2 inches or less. We`re likely to catch a break in precipitation and see a good deal of sunshine Saturday as shortwave high pressure ridging moves through. Sunday-Monday Sunday into Monday a more significant upper level trough of low pressure will develop along the coast, carving out a deeper, broader trough over the western United States. Numerical models are now well agreed on bringing an organized cold front onto the coast, to the Cascades, and then, in a more fragmented fashion, across the east side. Vertical profiles suggest that this frontal system will have a good deal of moisture in the dendritic growth zone for snowflake development ahead of it, as moisture moves in from aloft toward the surface. This should also allow for some evaporational cooling at lower levels as precipitation begins. This combined with cold air advection means that snow levels are likely to start low and then trend lower with time, with the exception of a possible brief rise in parts of the area Sunday afternoon. At this point, it appears snow levels across inland areas are likely to begin in the 1400 to 2000 foot range, possibly rise to 2kft to 3kft in the afternoon Sunday, and then fall to 700 to 1500 feet Sunday night into Monday morning. Several inches of low density powder snow are likely in the mountains, with lighter amounts expected on valley floors. Stay tuned for possible winter weather advisories for this time period. Tuesday-Beyond The forecast beyond Tuesday continues to be a bit fuzzy in terms of details, but ensembles agree on the general idea of cycling low pressure systems maintaining general upper level troughing and northwesterly flow aloft across the area. There also appears to be growing confidence that stronger frontal systems will affect the forecast area with rain and lower to mid elevation snowfall from time to time focused over the coast and, especially, California in the Tuesday (Day 6) to Sunday, January 30th (Day 10) time period. Ensembles also suggest that the first of these stronger frontal systems after the Sunday-Monday one will move through centered on about mid-week followed by another approximately next weekend into the first few days of February. Ensembles suggest that the mid-week system is most likely to affect NorCal the most, whereas the activity following that will probably impact Oregon about equally as much. Stay tuned, as this period of colder storm activity is likely to deliver low to mid elevation snow impacts, at times, and bring some much needed water and snowpack to our area. ~BTL