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Heat Wave On the Way

6:24 PM · Jul 22, 2022

Below is the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Medford: "A heat wave of unusually long duration, and of greater magnitude than any observed so far this summer is increasingly likely to occur next week. This includes not only the hottest temperatures of the summer so far, but well above normal overnight lows. Also, cumulus buildups over the higher terrain as early as Tuesday could trend to isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area late next week. The changes to the 7-day forecast with the issuance this morning were mainly subtle. Compared to yesterday's 12Z run of model data, high temperatures indicated by the blend of models late next week have trended about a couple of degrees higher, with a clearer picture/likelihood of the heat wave peaking on Thursday and Friday. Highs of 100 or higher are likely in most west side valleys, and 95 or higher in most east side valleys Monday through Friday. At the late week peak, inland highs are forecast at 95 to 110, with readings in the Rogue Valley not far from the the hottest locale of the Lower Klamath River Valley in western Siskiyou County. Also noteworthy, cooling in day 8 to 10 looks to be weak. By that time, any cooling at all will be welcome. First, highs this afternoon will be several degrees cooler than yesterday. A trough just offshore has brought a marine push of stratus to the coast and Umpqua Valley. The stratus is likely to linger through much of the morning, locally into the early afternoon. Otherwise, skies will be clear. Highs in Douglas County will be several degrees below normal, elsewhere in our area they will be around normal. The trough will pass across the Pacific Northwest and northern California today with breezy late afternoon into early evening winds, strongest at 15 to 20 mph in Siskiyou County from Hilt to Lake Shastina, and in the Dorris to Macdoel area. Afternoon winds will trend weaker and temperatures will trend upward this weekend with a weaker trough moving eastward across Washington on Saturday then high pressure becoming the dominant upper level feature on Sunday. Late night into morning marine stratus will be more limited in coverage and faster to erode during the weekend. Northerly winds over the Coast Range will become more northeasterly during the weekend with above normal temperatures for Curry County, especially near Brookings (highs around 75 to 80). Brookings will be unique in likely having Sunday as its hottest day of the week, with the thermal trough taking up residence inland thereafter. The focus for the next several shifts will be fine tuning the temperature forecast, and also there is the possibility of introducing a higher than 10% probability of thunderstorms for late in the week." Via NWS Medford

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