Weather and Smoke Update For Douglas County

There is good news to report this morning regarding our weather and smoke situation in Douglas County. First our much cooler weather has begun to arrive with Sunday set to reach a high of 85 degrees. Monday and through the rest of the week the highs will be in the mid to high 70's. Also, the first day with a possibility of rain has shown up on the long term forecast for next Sunday. That's far enough out that it's far from a certainty, but definitely a sign of fall weather setting in. Winds shifted and are now coming from the west which will blow the wildfire smoke completely out of the area by Monday morning. Here is the latest forecast discussion from the NWS in Medford: SHORT TERM...The ridge axis over the area will begin to shift east as an upper trough nears the coast today and tonight. Additionally, mid and upper level moisture associated with the monsoon and remnants of tropical system Kay will move into the area from the south. With this pattern expect a decrease in high temperatures compared to yesterday but overall, temperatures will remain well above normal. As the trough begins to move onshore on Monday, expect high temperatures to trend lower but still remain on the warm side. As moisture advects into the area, there will be a slight chance to chance for light showers this evening into Monday morning. The best chance for showers is expected along coastal areas and into the coastal mountains as well as inland over areas the mountains. Models and ensembles indicate that showers will be mainly light during this period. Monday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough will begin to move onshore. Additionally, models indicate weak instability over eastern portions of the area along with continued mid level moisture. This will bring a chance for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas from the Cascades eastward. LONG TERM...Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple weak upper level troughs will move over the region while mid level moisture continues to move up from the south into eastern portions of the area. A slight chance (15-20%) for showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday for eastern portions of Lake and Modoc Counties Tuesday afternoon with additional slight chances for showers on Wednesday for areas east of the Cascades. On Thursday, a broad trough remains over the region and expect a slight chance for showers east of the Cascades. Friday into the weekend, models and ensembles support an upper low and frontal system moving south out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards the area. However, there is significant variability in the models solutions with the track of the low which will factor into whether we see precipitation over the area next weekend. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as confidence in the details. FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday, temperatures will trend less hot across the area but still remain above normal for this time of hear. Additionally, mid and upper level moisture associated with the monsoon and remnants of tropical system Kay will move into the area. This will bring chances for light showers over the area. High resolution models continue to show isolated showers developing out over the Cascades this evening and the NAM and ECMWF models indicate showers possible along the coast, coastal mountains and across inland ridges. Overnight into Monday morning, models continue to show the best chance for showers will be along the coast into the coastal mountains and over mountains across inland areas. Since the lower layers are still on the dry side, expect precipitation to be mainly light. On Monday models continue to show weakly unstable conditions, leading to a chance for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening from the Cascades east. With showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, expect a slight chance to chance (20-30%) for wetting rains, mainly for areas east of the Cascades. Then models and ensemble members show general troughiness remains over the area through late in the week. This will result in lower daytime temperatures and higher relative humidity. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening in eastern Lake and eastern Modoc Counties, with additional slight chances for showers over eastern area mid to late week. A stronger frontal system may track south into the region next weekend, but confidence is low in the track and details of this system.