Cooler Temperatures and Rain Expected in Douglas County Next Week

Next week, specifically Tuesday through Thursday, we are looking at increased cloud cover, significantly cooler temperatures, and widespread rainfall across the forecast area. Douglas County has a 40 percent chance of getting an inch or more of rain and a 73% chance of getting at least 1/10th of an inch of rain. One way or another it will be good to get some rain on the fires and cooler temperatures to help firefighters. Here is the full forecast discussion from the National Weather Service: Noteworthy items include significantly cooler temperatures next week, a chance at widespread rainfall across the entire area, and a small chance for some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Given the hot, dry, and breezy conditions this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, we may have elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions arise for a few hours, mainly in and around Scott Valley (today and tomorrow), as well as portions of southeast Klamath County and southern Lake County (mainly tomorrow afternoon). Please see the latest fire weather section below for further information. Further Details: Water vapor from GOES-18 depicts dry air moving in behind the departing upper trough. This will lead to plenty of sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s/90s (some areas close to 100). The pressure gradient in the afternoon will lead to breezy conditions (10-20mph) this afternoon, especially during peak heating when we get some additional influence from mixing. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon as well; however, there will be more clouds around tomorrow, yet this will only lead to slightly cooler temperatures for some areas. By Tuesday, we will start to shift from zonal flow aloft to more southwesterly flow as a trough digs south over the western CONUS. This will eventually lead to a broad area of cyclonic circulation over the western CONUS. By Tuesday afternoon/early evening, we should start to see precipitation spreading over the region, and we are looking at the potential for widespread rainfall amounts over the forecast area. Over a 48 hr period ending Thursday afternoon, we are looking at a rainfall probability (from the NBM) for 0.10" or greater around 40-80 percent. The probabilities are highest across the westside (along/near the coast) and decrease towards the eastside and northern California. These probabilities have increased compared to previous forecast, and this certainly boost confidence in the forecast because the trend from the NBM has been increasing each night over the last 48 hours. As the saying goes, "The trend is our friend". The oddity yesterday in the suite of ensemble members for the GFS is not present today as most members are now showing QPF versus yesterday with only a handful indicating QPF. This also increases confidence. Also noteworthy is the 48hr probability (ending Thurs afternoon) from the NBM for getting 2.00" or greater of rainfall which has a "bullseye" of 20%-40% over southern Curry County and western parts of Josephine County. Looking at that same window, the probability for 1.00" or greater of rainfall is around 30%-50% for areas essentially west of a line from Yreka, CA to Roseburg, OR. What does all that mean? Well, we are certainly looking at some appreciable rainfall given the wildfire activity across the area, and the probabilities suggest we have a likely chance at most areas seeing at least some rainfall over a 48 hour window from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. The highest rainfall amounts are likely going to be Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. During this time a combination of persistence and embedded convection will lead to these higher rainfall rates. Speaking of convection, we do have a small amount of CAPE (100-300J/kg) around Wednesday afternoon, so we could see some lightning activity but this should be isolated in nature. Fortunately these will not be "dry" thunderstorms if they happen to materialize. -Guerrero